StockMarketTiming.com — PEs Marking The Ends of Past Bear Markets

Price-to-Earnings Multiples (PEs)
Marking The End of Past Bear Markets

Past as Prologue: P/E Ratios and Bond Yields at Past Market Troughs

Date S&P 500 P/E Treasury Yields
(trailing 12-months)

Dec. 1920 8.52 NA

July 1932 9.35 3.2% (long-term govt. securities)

March 1938 10.62 2.64% (long-term govt. securities)

April 1942 7.93 2.44% (long-term govt. securities)

May 1962 18.32 3.87% (10-year note)

Sept. 1966 14.12 5.18% (10-year note)

June 1970 13.69 7.84% (10-year note)

Dec. 1974 7.54 7.43% (10-year note)

July 1982 7.83 13.95% (10-year note)

Oct. 1990 14.21 8.72% (10-year note)

Sept. 1998 24.2 4.81% (10-year note)

Avg. 13.63 5.96%

Date	S&P 500 P/E	Treasury Yields (trailing 12-months)
Dec. 1920	8.52	NA
July 1932	9.35	3.2% (long-term govt. securities)
March 1938	10.62	2.64% (long-term govt. securities)
April 1942	7.93	2.44% (long-term govt. securities)
May 1962	18.32	3.87% (10-year note)
Sept. 1966	14.12	5.18% (10-year note)
June 1970	13.69	7.84% (10-year note)
Dec. 1974	7.54	7.43% (10-year note)
July 1982	7.83	13.95% (10-year note)
Oct. 1990	14.21	8.72% (10-year note)
Sept. 1998	24.2	4.81% (10-year note)
	Avg. 13.63	5.96%

Researched by Robert Shiller, Yale economics professor and author of "Irrational Exuberance."
The historic Treasury-note yields come from the Federal Reserve.

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